Contact Us

   After the events of September 11 and the subsequent naming of Osama bin Ladin as the man behind the attacks, was oil the motivation behind America’s intervention in Afghanistan? Oil and gas resources are always a strategic consideration in all American foreign policy and access to the vast petroleum resources of the Caspian Sea and Central Asia must have been given some thought when deciding to invade Afghanistan.

   In the early 90’s, many Western governments expected the newly independent States of Central Asia that had broken away from the old Soviet Union, to produce a petroleum bonanza for Western oil companies that were able to exploit these oil and gas reserves. The potential benefits would be huge, once a way was found to transport the oil and gas to the West. Oil consortia from America, Europe, Russia, and Japan vied with each other to exploit their potential, for many knew that the region’s reserves of oil and gas was equal to that of the Arabian Gulf States, Iraq and Iran.

   The main problem facing the oil companies was how to construct pipelines over some of the world’s toughest terrain. Geography and politics limited the options. In 1998, the then American administration, proposed that a pipeline is built, which would stretch 1,500 miles from the Caspian Sea to Baku, the Capital of Azerbaijan, should continue through Georgia, across eastern and central Turkey and to the Turkish port of Ceyhen on the Mediterranean.

   Although this route was longer than others proposed, it was favoured because it made Turkey, a NATO and US ally, guardian of the pipeline. Building a pipeline along the much shorter route from the Caspian Sea to Iran meant leaving the West vulnerable to the whims of the theocratic regime in Tehran - an option entirely unacceptable to the Americans.

   Russia made the most favoured proposal. They wanted to expand existing pipelines from Baku to Novorossijsk, then ship the oil by tanker to the Bulgarian Port of Burgas and then on through a new pipeline to the Greek port of Thessaloniki.  This had the support of all the major Western oil companies; they preferred it, because it was shorter, safer and cheaper. But the United States, having become the most influential nation in the world at the expense of the Russians, was not interested in handing the Russians an opportunity to re-dominate Central Asia.

   The terrain in Central Asia proved formidable and made exporting the oil difficult, if not downright impossible, and the oil companies became increasingly dependent on Russian routes and Russian influence and control. Furthermore, the oil companies soon found out that doing business in Central Asia was like shadow boxing, as the governments of these countries were often too weak to enforce agreements signed with the oil companies. The Western oil companies were soon backing strong autocratic regimes that could guarantee their investments. This influx of Western money soon produced economic chaos in these countries, resulting in societies that were divided into the few very rich and the very, very poor.

   This divisive social pattern led to a cycle of repression, religious extremism, poverty and violence, which produced a wave of Islamic militancy that swept across Central Asia and ultimately left the Taliban in control in Afghanistan. Then came September 11, and the US victory over the Taliban, and the installation of a new regime in Kabul….

   In the aftermath of the attacks against New York and Washington, few looked closely at the economic implications of an American presence in Afghanistan or the installation of a government friendly to the West. Had they done so, they would have realised that a pipeline through Afghanistan, to the Arabian Sea via Pakistan, is the shortest and most viable route for the oil wealth of Central Asia. The Bush administration must have known this; many members of Bush’s cabinet, and Bush himself are oilmen and all still have close ties to the American oil industry.

   As long as the Taliban ruled in Afghanistan, this pipeline option was unthinkable. Now however, America has the most influence in that country, its military guarantees the security of the new government, while at the same time protect a new pipeline when it is built. Conspiracy theorists may wonder whether the primary reason for invading Afghanistan was to secure a route for Caspian crude. Many have pointed out that the scale and expense of the military operation against the Taliban and Osama bin Ladin, seems out of all proportions to the damage inflicted on the United States. America must have known there was a pay-off somewhere. After all, it could not expect the new Afghan government to pay its operational expenses for fighting the war, as Kuwait and Saudi Arabia did after the Gulf War.

   However, things are never black and white, Bush had to react to the attacks, the first on the American mainland by a foreign terror group, or he would have been thrown out of the White House. But the attack did make it strategically viable to strike at the terrorist, and secure a new supply of oil. Interestingly, one of the fruits of the victory has been the signing of a two billion dollar pipeline deal with the new Afghan government.

   If the underlying motivation of the Bush’s administration to exploit Central Asian oil reserves is to wean itself off its dependency for oil from the Middle East, it could be creating the same conditions in Central Asia that have made American deeply unpopular in the Middle East. And just as in the cold war, the Central Asian republics Afghanistan, Pakistan and Chechnya may become a fertile breeding ground for a new generation of terrorists, as American capitalism takes hold within the region. Remember, because of the corruption and lawlessness of local political leaders and gangsters, who, in their scramble for petro-dollars, ruthlessly plundered these Central Asian States and left the majority to spend their lives in misery, poverty and hopelessness, Al Qaida easily attracted recruits from the inhabitants of this region. 

   Talks are already taking place; agreements are being signed, so it won’t be very long before the first barrel of Caspian crude finds its way to the Arabian Sea. However, Caspian oil reserves may not be the cure for the West’s dependency on Middle East oil.  Unless some of the new petro-dollars are used to alleviate poverty and build societies in Central Asia, the West will replicate the mistakes it has already made in the region. This in turn will give rise to more violence and instability in a region that need many years of peace and security to restore itself economically, so as to be able to survive in the global economy.