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Arab
Americans are John Kerry's "canaries in the coal mine."
In days gone by, coalminers brought canaries into the
mines in which they were working. Because they feared
releasing pockets of odorless but deadly natural gas,
the canaries served as an alarm. As long as the
canaries were singing, the miners knew that all was
well. When the canaries went silent, the miners knew
there was danger and would take action. From that time
on, the expression, "canaries in the coal mine" has been
used as metaphor for any warning sign that portends
danger.
And so it is with
Arab Americans in the 2004 election. The most recent
Zogby poll of Arab American voters in key battleground
states shows that while John Kerry still leads George
Bush, his lead has been cut almost in half. In July,
for example, Arab American voters gave Kerry a 54 to 24
point lead over the incumbent President. By September,
that lead had shrunk to 49% for Kerry and to 31.5% for
Bush.
Bush's job
performance rating among Arab Americans is up slightly
but is still at a very low 31%. And the percentage of
Arab Americans who say the President deserves reelection
is also at 31%.
In fact, since
this election year's polling of Arab Americans first
started in February 2004, President Bush's support has
never been higher than 31%. And so one might reasonably
ask two questions: What accounts for Bush's September
increase, and why hasn't John Kerry improved his
standing among Arab Americans since February.
Looking at the
polling data, the answer to the first question is
simple. Following on the heels of Bush's successful New
York Republican Convention, Arab American Republicans,
like many other Republicans around the country, were
energized and have come home. In July, for example, only
60% of Arab American Republicans supported Bush for
reelection. The rest were divided among those who were
voting for Kerry, those who were voting for Nader and
those who were still undecided. In September, 75% Arab
American Republicans are now supporting President Bush.
This accounts for a good portion of Bush's higher
numbers.
Overall, however,
Arab Americans continue to give Bush extremely low
ratings on almost every issue: the economy, healthcare,
Iraq, education, etc. But this weakness has not
translated into growing support for John Kerry. What is
clear is that almost 70% of Arab Americans want someone
new as president, but Kerry has not convinced them, nor
has he courted them in an effort to win their support.
And it's not only
Arab Americans who feel this way. Pollster John Zogby
finds that nationally, Bush is leading Kerry 46% to
43%. As he analyzes the current state of the campaign,
John has noted that the country is almost evenly divided
between Bush's supporters and his Democratic opponents.
How is it then that Kerry has a deficit? Simple. It
appears that given the events of the past month
(Republican Convention, Swift Boat Controversy, miscues
by the Kerry Campaign), Republicans have been energized
by a candidate who appeals to their concerns, while
Kerry's supporters are suffering from malaise, not
feeling the energy or anger that they felt just a few
months ago.
Democrats were
angry at the outcome of the 2000 contest. They opposed
what they saw as a reckless administration that pursued
tax reduction and deficit expansion. They opposed the
way the Administration misled the nation into war, and
the widespread violations of civil liberties that
accompanied the war on terror. What they wanted was a
challenger with a message as clear as their anger. Some
are not finding that in John Kerry's message. And so it
appears that what is happening among Arab Americans is
happening among many other potential Kerry supporters
around the country. And this is why the Kerry Campaign's
sluggish performance among Arab Americans can be said to
send an important warning signal. Recall that Arab
Americans gave a slight plurality of their votes to Bush
in 2000. Today, almost 70% of Arab Americans want a
change in the White House. But if only 49% of Arab
Americans see Kerry as bringing the change they want,
then there's trouble ahead.
There are still
six weeks to go before the election and a great deal can
change. But if Kerry is to energize his base and regain
lost ground, then his campaign should pay attention to
all the canaries that have stopped singing. |
